Annual Meeting Investments Sessions

A long period of liberal monetary policy and historically low rates followed the capital market crisis of 2008. Then everything changed. The COVID crisis brought a flood of fiscal stimulus, and inflation surged. In response, the Fed tightened monetary policy and rates rose dramatically. Now inflation is winding down, and monetary policy is certain to loosen. What will happen to interest rates? There’s a consensus that they’ll drop, but how much? What’s the natural level of rates absent policy intervention? Speakers explore the supply/demand drivers of rates and implications for the near and long term.

Financial economics concepts entered the pension arena about 20 years ago, and have had a strong impact on both liability valuation and investment strategies. These developments were accelerated by first the maturation and then the winding down of pension programs. How have FE-related thinking and approaches evolved over time? What new challenges have arisen and how can these be addressed?

Social Security reform legislation of 1983 purported to address that system’s funding, and stabilize the program into the 2060s -- beyond the lifetime of baby boomers. But the Social Security trust fund is now projected to be depleted in 2034. What went wrong? What did the 1983 system’s architects project that turned out to be over-optimistic? (Hint: it wasn’t demographics.) This session will compare the demographic and economic realities of today to what those 1983 folks projected. Are there any lessons to be learned that we can apply to current model-building approaches?